060
FXUS64 KEWX 201601 AAA
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1001 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
...New UPDATE...
Dense Fog Advisory extended through 11 AM CST
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog mainly over the Coastal Plains around sunrise this
morning.
- Mostly well above normal temperatures for the weekend through next
week.
- Dry weather for the next seven days.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Dense fog continues to affect parts of the southern and
southwestern counties of South Central Texas including Bexar
County. Therefore, the Dense Fog Advisory has been extended
through 11 AM CST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1207 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Gulf air with higher moisture is spreading across the region and
should bring along with it some low stratus closer to daybreak
across most of South-Central Texas and patchy fog over mainly the
Coastal Plains. Some cloud cover could stick around along the
Balcones Escarpment and I-35 corridor into the late-morning, but
sunny skies should develop this afternoon. Breezy low-level flow
should make for an unseasonably warm Saturday afternoon with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s for most. Some of the cloudier spots may
hold out in the 60s for longer, but expect quick warming to
accompany any clearing of the clouds as temperatures aloft approach
the climatological maximum for this time of year and mix down to the
surface.
A weak cold front then pushes across the area early from the
northwest Sunday morning. The source region for its airmass doesn`t
look especially cold and the front lacks supportive winds aloft, so
I don`t expect a lasting changeup in the weather aside from just
Sunday into Monday morning with the possibility of briefly cooler
temperatures and a temporary switch to light northerly winds behind
the front. Lows Sunday morning will vary depending on the frontal
position, with morning temperatures in the 40s behind the front
(more likely over the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau) and
temperatures in the 60s accompanied by fog and cloudiness ahead of
the front (more likely over the Coastal Plains). The temperature
forecast Sunday afternoon is somewhat tricky and hinges on whether
or not clouds are able to clear behind the front. The WRF-ARW and
NAM guidance suggests that a cloud deck could maintain cooler
temperatures Sunday afternoon (in the 50s and 60s) while the
HRRR/RAP, RRFS, and WRF-FV3 suggest sufficient clearing for
temperatures to still make it into the 70s and 80s, especially over
the Rio Grande Plains. The difference appears to arise in part due
to the handling of a weak meso-low along the front, with a more
distant low favoring less clouds and a closer approach favoring the
cooler cloudier scenario. Regardless, significant weather is not
anticipated with the front, and any changes it does bring will be
quickly replaced by a resurgent stream of Gulf moisture heading into
the workweek.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1207 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
The theme for next week is unseasonable warmth. An expansive upper-
level ridge is forecast to build across the southern half of the
continental US early in the week and then dominate the weather
pattern throughout the week. Both NAEFS and EFS ensemble suites
indicate this ridge may be the among the strongest on record for
late December over our area.
Persistently dry southwesterly flow aloft will help promote
unseasonably warm daytime temperatures while a more humid southerly
flow off the Gulf and closer to the surface will support
unseasonably mild overnight temperatures. Outright daily record
warmth for highs and lows are not explicitly depicted in the latest
forecast, but we`ll likely be in the upper echelons of observed
values if not near record territory as temperatures persistently
stay 10 to 20 degrees above average across the region. Each day
Monday through Friday, highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s to
low 80s with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Climatologically
speaking, these conditions resemble the norms for April. The spread
in temperature projections from the the middle 50 percent of models
during the week is only about 3 to 5 degrees, so there is good model
agreement in the magnitude of the warmth. Rain chances remain
minimal throughout the week, though there could be a brief window
Monday (less than a 10 percent chance) for some light rain showers
accompanying a surge of Gulf moisture.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Little to no change to the previous forecast. Only minor change
was slightly earlier arrival time of MVFR ceilings at SSF and AUS.
Otherwise, expect MVFR to IFR and perhaps even a brief period of
LIFR at SAT/SSF/DRT before lifting to VFR quickly later this
morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 78 51 70 52 / 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 50 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 50 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 80 46 66 48 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 78 48 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 80 48 69 49 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 75 48 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 77 49 74 51 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 57 73 54 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 76 51 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 77 53 76 55 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for TXZ204-205-
207-218>225-228.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Platt
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